Narrative Calls for 2023

You could have made 20x so far.

Would you be profitable if you would jump into every single narrative this year featured on my channel? The short answer is yes, but the actual results depends.

Let’s have a look at Narratives I covered on PC Crypto channel, with respective coins in each category and potential loss/gain. Let’s see how profitable were projects I covered and how much you could have gained.

ATH means all-time high after I covered it on my channel (it happens than the real ATH was sometimes before I reviewed the project).

x is the multiplication done on the initial capital counting from the price on the date of a video to ATH. If >1 then it’s a gain, if =1 then it’s a loss usually.

Also you have to look at the current price that is indicative whether after ATH the price has fallen or still stays around the same level. Usually a lot of projects falls massively when the narrative goes out of fashion.

Disclaimer: nothing here is financial advice, always do your own research! Also no results are guaranteed if you follow the projects I cover on my channel!

AI Coins (Jan-Feb ‘23)

Based on GPT-4 launch (added to ChatGPT), people got excited by artificial intelligence and this excitement also flowed into crypto.

AI coins - both older and newer - got a lot of traction.

I did a video on Jan 10 2023:

with larger AI coins:

Small caps

I did a video with AI small caps on Feb 7 2023:

and a Bittensor video on Feb 22 2023:

McPepes on Mar 2 2023:

Also I covered Render Network on Mar 8 2023:

Meme Coins (Apr-Jun ‘23)

Meme coins are a pure function of attention. I like memecoins because of that but they are a bet on how long a project can hold attention. The biggest gains and the biggest losses category.

The memecoin season started with PEPE on Apr 18 2023:

WOJAK also on Apr 18 2023:

Then I have covered a bunch of other coins on Apr 19 2023:

Turbo on May 5 2023:

Bob on May 6 2023:

Ben on May 8 2023:

HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu on Jun 4 2023:

Pepe 2.0 on Jun 30 2023:

LSDfi (Feb-Jun ‘23)

Liquid Staking Derivatives is a category of protocols built on top of staked ETH like Lido and RocketPool. Their primaty goal is to provide more yield than just staking as well as give more flexibility.

Pendle on Feb 6 2023

My first LSDfi video on Jun 6 2023:

My second LSDfi video on Jun 7 2023:

Radiant on Jun 8 2023:

Telegram Bots (Jul ‘23)

Telegram bots are automatic airdrop hunting, trading or getting information in one place. The leading project in this narrative is Unibot.

This is an ongoing narrative!

I covered Unibot on Jul 19 2023:

and airdrop bots on Jul 18 2023:

Summary

Narrative trading really works, and makes generally trading easier, but it’s not free money. You have to know when to exit the position to really profit.

I have listed 34 projects

• 15 AI coins

• 10 meme coins

• 5 LSDfi coins

• 4 bot coins

Let’s now assume you have a strategy where you exit a position whenever you make a particular x, and let’s see how it works.

• 3x: 12 projects, so assuming you lose everything else the profit is 3x12/34 = 36/34 = 1.058 of your initial capital, i.e. you would make a 5.8% gain.

• 2x: 18 projects, so 2x18/34=36/34 so again the same 5.8%

• 1.5x: 22 projects, so 1.5x22/34=33/34=0.97, so you would make a loss of 3%

Generally speaking, my conclusion here is with narratives you’d be better off riding winners to as much possible. It’s like spray-and-pray strategy in the VC world - you want to hit that one unicorn.

Let’s now do the same for 5x, 7x and 10x

• 10x: 3 projects, so 10x3/34=30/34=0.88 so a 12% loss

• 7x: 5 projects, so 7x5/34=35/34=1.02 so a 2% gain

• 5x: 7 projects, so 5x7/34=35/34=1.02, again a 2% gain

Now of course in the real trading you probably won’t be getting into everything I cover and moreover you would exit at various price levels. Depending on your execution you could end up with a bigger gain or a loss.

Also I have assumed that if a project did not do particular x, then it’s actually 0 in the final calculations, but not everything went to zero, so the gain is bigger.

For example: in the 5x case, assume we have sold all the 7 projects (AGIX, PEPE, WOJAK, TURBO, BEN, BITCOIN, PENDLE) and are selling all the rest now with the average loss of 50% (which is actually much smaller if you look at numbers, but I want to simplify the scenario), then the total gain is (5x7 + 0.5x27)/34=48.5/34=1.42 so a 42% gain!

For 10x scenario we could have (10x3+0.5x31)=45.5/34=1.33, so we actually have a 33% gain!

For 7x, we have (7x5+0.5x29)/34=49.5/34=1.45 so a 45% gain.

For 3x, we have (3x12+0.5x22)/34=47/34=1.38 so a 38% gain.

For 2x, we have (2x18+0.5x16)/34=44/34=1.29 so a 29% gain.

For 1.5x, we have (1.5x22+0.5x12)/34=39/34=1.14 so a 14% gain.

Under these assumptions it looks like the optimal strategy would be to either wait for 5x or 7x with projects, and sell the rest if you get 50% loss: i.e. 5x take profit, 0.5 stop loss.

Of course this is not a financial advice, everything is here purely for educational purpose and there’s no guarantee of any future gains.

Remember to never risk more capital than you can lose and always do your own research!